Future of the International Space Station
- 5th Oct 2016
- Author: Josh Barker
More than twenty years ago, a partnership of five national space agencies began the construction of one of the most ambitious science projects in history. Today the future of this successful, but ageing research facility has begun to be called into question.
In the 1993, it was proposed that an enormous orbital science lab should be built. Using the knowledge gained from previous generations of space stations this was to be the greatest one yet.
Today this project is known as the International Space Station (ISS). This football-pitch-sized research facility has provided the unique opportunity of a long-term microgravity environment. The work done on the ISS has revolutionised our understanding of a huge range of things, from human physiology to material sciences. The ISS has a storied history and has undoubtedly been a great contribution to our scientific landscape, but as time marches forward, its future is in question.
Going Commercial
Back in 2014, questions were being asked about the future of the ISS.
Roscosmos suggested that maybe the American and Russian main sections could be separated, or perhaps that a new station could be built altogether. But in the end, it was decided that the ISS would be funded and operated until at least 2024.
Beyond this date, the future remains unclear. Russia has declared an interest in working on a new replacement. NASA hasn’t confirmed their part in this plan, but during a recent conference about planned Mars missions, NASA’s deputy associate administrator said they were interested in handing the station over to a commercial entity.
So far, all space stations have been operated by national organisations, either solely or in collaboration with other countries. The idea of a commercial space station is a novel one but in this burgeoning age of private space exploration, it’s certainly a possible scenario.
After all, private companies have already been involved in ISS operations. For example, Pizza Hut paid the Russian space agency $1 million (£700,000) to deliver a pizza to the space station in 2001. The deal included a logo on the side of the rocket.
Who could buy the ISS?
In more recent times, NASA has sponsored a Commercial Resupply Services programme. This programme has seen private organisations such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences being awarded contracts and expertise to help them run the day-to-day resupply operations of the ISS.
The Commercial Resupply Services programme seems to have done a lot for the stimulation of private space flight endeavours, and more companies are beginning to focus on the space industry.
There are established companies like SpaceX, but we’re also seeing the arrival of start-ups like Bigelow Airspace and Blue Origin. One of these companies, or a collaboration, may seem like the obvious choice to take control of the International Space Station, but they may not have access to the $3-4 billion that it takes to operate the Earth’s largest orbital laboratory each year.
However, if we look through recent revenues we can identify some potential customers.
One company able to foot the bill is Apple, now the world’s most valuable technology company. Posting over $50 billion in earnings last year (2015), Apple could comfortably support the space station costs. Apple have yet to show any interest in the space industry, but they certainly have the financial resources to make a quick entry into the market should they want to make the i-ISS become a reality.
Another company that could potentially pick up the bill for the ISS is Facebook. Last year they posted revenues that could just about cover the maintenance of the station. Again, while space doesn’t seem the obvious leap for Facebook (Spacebook anyone?) they have invested in different technology before, famously in Oculus Rift in 2014. They could look at taking their popular social website literally out of this world.
A company much more likely to take up the mantle could be Boeing. Boeing made enough earnings last year to comfortable pay the ISS’s maintenance bills and they already have a strong investment in space.
Boeing are currently involved in NASA’s Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) programme. Its engineers are designing and building a human-rated space vehicle that will allow crew transfer between Earth and the ISS, as well as possible exploration into deeper space. Plans for this spacecraft seem to be progressing well; the first crewed flight is scheduled for 2019. Having shown a commitment to space travel it would not be a huge surprise if Boeing showed an interest in the future of the ISS. The ISS is a huge investment, but it would certainly set Boeing apart from its competitors.
Ultimately we won’t see any major changes in ISS operation for the next few years. As we approach 2024, expect further discussions about what is to be done with the ageing research facility. Whether the ISS continues its current science research, is taken over by a commercial entity, preserved in orbit for space legacy, or piece by piece broken up in our atmosphere, no one can contest the phenomenal scientific and collaborative legacy that the International Space Station continues to build with every orbit of the Earth.
About the author: Josh Barker is the Planetarium Coordinator and Education presenter at the National Space Centre.
